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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:282.0
Current RPI:282
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:234
Current Record:11-23
Expected Record:11-23
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:309
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-23282.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Akron (227.0)MACA67-57L0%0.0
11-14Rutgers (203.0)B10A70-38L0%0.0
11-17Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH80-56W100%0.0
11-20East Carolina (274.0)AmerA72-69L0%0.0
11-24Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH73-74L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH75-72W100%0.0
12-2Kent St. (154.0)MACA72-62L0%0.0
12-6Western Michigan (177.0)MACA78-67L0%0.0
12-19Niagara (163.0)MAACA79-77L0%0.0
12-21Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
12-23Toledo (75.0)MACH62-77L0%0.0
12-29Michigan St. (14.0)B10A111-61L0%0.0
1-1Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzH77-80L0%0.0
1-4Green Bay (303.0)HorzH80-79W100%0.0
1-6Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH63-67L0%0.0
1-10Detroit (318.0)HorzA85-84L0%0.0
1-12Oakland (182.0)HorzA81-68L0%0.0
1-15Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzA70-55L0%0.0
1-18IUPUI (294.0)HorzH70-67W100%0.0
1-20Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH80-87L0%0.0
1-25Green Bay (303.0)HorzA66-44L0%0.0
1-27Milwaukee (231.0)HorzA70-47L0%0.0
2-1Wright St. (99.0)HorzH77-74W100%0.0
2-3Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzH61-78L0%0.0
2-8IUPUI (294.0)HorzA78-73L0%0.0
2-10Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA78-86W100%0.0
2-14Detroit (318.0)HorzH75-72W100%0.0
2-16Oakland (182.0)HorzH66-82L0%0.0
2-19Wright St. (99.0)HorzA72-63L0%0.0
2-24Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzA94-99W100%0.0
3-2Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzN72-71W100%0.0
3-3Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzN80-89W100%0.0
3-5Oakland (182.0)HorzN43-44W100%0.0
3-6Wright St. (99.0)HorzN74-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.6326.6332.1932.19-9.48-9.48
Wright St.Horz5.485.4872.4172.412.462.46
OaklandHorz5.465.4656.6756.670.730.73
Youngstown St.Horz5.355.3518.5218.52-3.37-3.37
Northern KentuckyHorz5.325.3269.2369.232.052.05
MilwaukeeHorz4.054.0544.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Green BayHorz4.034.0332.1432.14-1.44-1.44
DetroitHorz4.004.0017.8617.86-2.57-2.57
IUPUIHorz3.973.9730.7730.77-1.53-1.53
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.963.9650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC1.771.7765.6265.620.550.55
Western MichiganMAC1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Kent St.MAC1.711.7146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
AkronMAC1.611.6140.0040.00-0.32-0.32
RutgersB101.591.5940.6240.62-0.30-0.30
Michigan St.B101.581.5887.5087.501.191.19
Coppin St.MEAC1.561.5616.1316.13-1.06-1.06
East CarolinaAmer1.561.5631.0331.03-0.59-0.59
Central ConnecticutNEC1.541.5441.9441.94-0.25-0.25
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5287.8887.881.151.15
Arkansas St.SB1.471.4731.0331.03-0.56-0.56
NiagaraMAAC1.471.4758.0658.060.240.24
Eastern MichiganMAC0.340.3458.6258.620.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.330.3336.6736.67-0.09-0.09
Ball St.MAC0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.250.2575.7675.760.130.13
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
MemphisAmer0.190.1961.7661.760.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1984.3884.380.130.13
IndianaB100.190.1951.6151.610.010.01
WisconsinB100.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
PurdueB100.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
IonaMAAC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.120.1282.7682.760.080.08
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
HoustonAmer0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
SMUAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.333.33-0.09-0.09
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
SyracuseACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
IowaB100.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.040.0484.8584.850.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
USCP120.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00